Spaghetti Scenarios
Each line is a scenario that starts today and heads toward a possible state of civilization. Line thickness shows how solid the evidence is, not how severe the scenario is. Tap a line to see its summary and open its page.
R01a · Risk
Climate change — sustained crossing of +1.5 °C
- Trajectory
- Grows / Stagnates depending on the response
- Probability
- Almost certain (5)
- Impact
- Major (4)
- Timeframe
- Crossing projected around ~2030
- Confidence
- High
This topic brings together 3 scenarios: R01a · R01b · T02. The map shows the most likely one; open it to see them all.
All scenarios
20 topics · 22 scenariosTranscends4
Grows3
Stagnates2
Collapse / Extinction10
- R02Collapse of biodiversity and ecosystemsAlmost certain (5) · Decades (ongoing)
- R05Severe natural pandemicUnlikely to Very likely (2–4) · Recurring on a century scale
- R06Synthetic pathogen / designer biologyUncertain · Decades
- R07Large-scale nuclear warUncertain · Could happen at any time
- R09Global systemic cyberattackUncertain · Years
- R10Misaligned AIUncertain · Present–decades
- R13Extreme solar stormVery likely (4) · Could happen at any time
- R14Supervolcanic eruptionRemote (1) · Centuries–thousands of years
- R15Asteroid impact ≥ 1 kmRemote (1) · Centuries–millennia
- R16Nearby gamma-ray burstRemote (1) · Geological timescales