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Spaghetti Scenarios · Transcendence trajectory

Sustainable multiplanetary expansion

Humanity establishes self-sustaining colonies on the Moon and Mars, with their own water, energy and food. It is the trajectory that would take the longest to achieve, but the only one that would secure a future for the species beyond Earth.

Since 2000 there has always been someone living off Earth. But living far away without depending on it is not yet possible.

Continuous human presence off Earth

Since 2000

The International Space Station has not been empty a single day. But all that presence is in low orbit: nobody lives on the Moon or Mars.

▲ Two inhabited stations at the same time since 2022

Self-sufficiency in water, energy and food

98%

of water is recycled on board. Only 50% of the oxygen is recovered, and food is still shipped from Earth.

▲ Water went from 93–94% to 98% in 2023

Cost of access to orbit

~US$1,400/kg

with a heavy commercial launcher (2018). With the Space Shuttle it cost about US$61,700 per kilo.

▲ About 20 times cheaper than in the Shuttle era

What it costs to lift a kilo to orbit

Each rocket with the year of its first flight, in 2018 dollars per kilo to low orbit. The drop is so large that a logarithmic scale is needed.

Vanguard (1957)US$894,700
Scout (1961)US$111,800
Soyuz (1966)US$7,600
Saturn V (1968)US$5,200
Space Shuttle (1981)US$61,700
Ariane 5G (1996)US$13,100
Falcon 9 (2010)US$2,700
Falcon Heavy (2018)US$1,400

Logarithmic scale: each step is ten times the previous one.

Between 1970 and 2000 the average was about US$18,500 per kilo.

Without Earth being alone

—days in a row with people living in orbit without interruption, since the first crew arrived at the International Space Station.

Closing the loop: how much is recycled on board

To live on the Moon or Mars, almost everything has to be recycled. The white line marks NASA's goal for oxygen.

Water98%
Oxygen from CO₂50%
Goal for distant missions: at least 75%.

On Mars, the MOXIE experiment produced 122 g of oxygen from the Martian air between 2021 and 2023: what a small dog breathes in 10 hours.

Orbital launches per year

Orbital launch attempts worldwide. After decades of stagnation, the pace has soared since 2020.

01002003001957197520002025329
  • Orbital launches329launches in 2025

The road to the Moon and Mars

  1. 2000The first crew arrives at the International Space Station: continuous presence begins.
  2. 2015First food grown and eaten in space: red romaine lettuce.
  3. 2022China continuously occupies its Tiangong station: two inhabited stations at the same time.
  4. 2023The station reaches 98% water recycling. MOXIE ends: 122 g of oxygen made on Mars.
  5. 2025Record of 329 orbital launches in one year.
  6. 2026Artemis II: four astronauts fly around the Moon, the first since Apollo 17 in 1972 (April 1 to 10).
  7. Today · October 2026
  8. 2027Artemis III: test in Earth orbit of docking with the lunar landers.planned
  9. 2028Artemis IV: the program's first crewed Moon landing, at the lunar south pole.planned
  10. 2030End of International Space Station operations. China: crewed Moon landing before this year.planned

Sustainable multiplanetary expansion

Probability
Uncertain
Timeframe
Decades–centuries
Confidence
Low

Signals to watch

  • Continuous human presence off Earth
  • Self-sufficiency in water, energy and food
  • Cost of access to orbit

Possible human action

  • Sustained space programs
  • International cooperation
  • Development of closed-loop life support