Active wars and the risk of nuclear conflict

The global state of armed conflict and the nuclear threat

Active conflicts

official data 2024

↑ 2 more than in 2023 (59)

Active wars

conflicts with 1,000+ deaths in 2024

Battle deaths 2024

128,439

battle-related deaths · official data

Minor conflicts

of the 61 active conflicts in 2024

Number of conflicts (1994–2024)

Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v25.1

Battle deaths per year (1994–2024)

Source: UCDP Battle-Related Deaths Dataset v25.1

Global political violence — ACLED data

Includes battles, explosions and violence against civilians · Updated May 29, 2026

acleddata.com

Reported deaths 2025

243,738

209,202 violent events

Reported deaths 2026 (partial)

111,476

95,967 events recorded

Trend 2025 vs 2024

-2.9%

year-over-year change in deaths

Deaths from political violence 2010–2026 (ACLED)

Top 15 countries by reported deaths — 2025

1Ukraine

78,38576,152 ev.

2Sudan

20,1913,929 ev.

3Palestine

16,90314,900 ev.

4Myanmar

15,69211,042 ev.

5Nigeria

12,9005,523 ev.

6Somalia

9,8064,436 ev.

7Mexico

8,0908,035 ev.

8Brazil

7,9749,188 ev.

9Syria

7,9516,777 ev.

10DR Congo

7,1953,429 ev.

11Ethiopia

6,3162,265 ev.

12Pakistan

5,3203,659 ev.

13Burkina Faso

5,2741,371 ev.

14Haiti

4,7041,744 ev.

15Ecuador

4,0653,317 ev.

Active conflicts 2024WAR = >1,000 deaths/year

	No.	Conflict	Country / Area	Region	Type	Intensity	Deaths 2024	Range (low–high)	Start
	1	Russia vs Ukraine	Russia / Ukraine	Europe	Interstate	War	75,686	68,784 – 121,134	2014 (10 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 202475,686 Country / AreaRussia / Ukraine RegionEurope TypeInterstate Death range68,784 – 121,134 Start2014 (10 years)
	2	Israel vs Hamas / Palestine	Israel / Palestine	Middle East	Internationalized	War	21,465	21,407 – 21,534	1948 (76 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 202421,465 Country / AreaIsrael / Palestine RegionMiddle East TypeInternationalized Death range21,407 – 21,534 Start1948 (76 years)
	3	Sudan — Civil War (RSF)	Sudan	Africa	Intrastate	War	4,684	4,360 – 4,974	1971 (53 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 20244,684 Country / AreaSudan RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range4,360 – 4,974 Start1971 (53 years)
	4	Israel vs Hezbollah	Israel / Lebanon	Middle East	Intrastate	War	4,362	4,007 – 5,184	1986 (38 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 20244,362 Country / AreaIsrael / Lebanon RegionMiddle East TypeIntrastate Death range4,007 – 5,184 Start1986 (38 years)
	5	Somalia vs Al-Shabaab	Somalia	Africa	Internationalized	War	2,193	2,165 – 2,311	1982 (42 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 20242,193 Country / AreaSomalia RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range2,165 – 2,311 Start1982 (42 years)
	6	Ethiopia — Fano Conflict	Ethiopia	Africa	Intrastate	War	2,139	2,122 – 5,539	2023 (1 year)
IntensityWar Deaths 20242,139 Country / AreaEthiopia RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range2,122 – 5,539 Start2023 (1 year)
	7	Burkina Faso vs JNIM	Burkina Faso	Africa	Internationalized	War	2,136	2,018 – 2,581	1987 (37 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 20242,136 Country / AreaBurkina Faso RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range2,018 – 2,581 Start1987 (37 years)
	8	Syria — Civil War	Syria	Middle East	Internationalized	War	1,459	1,453 – 1,475	1966 (58 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 20241,459 Country / AreaSyria RegionMiddle East TypeInternationalized Death range1,453 – 1,475 Start1966 (58 years)
	9	Pakistan vs TTP / HGB	Pakistan	Asia	Intrastate	War	1,304	1,284 – 1,380	1990 (34 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 20241,304 Country / AreaPakistan RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range1,284 – 1,380 Start1990 (34 years)
	10	Myanmar — NUG Coalition	Myanmar	Asia	Intrastate	War	1,244	1,232 – 2,363	1948 (76 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 20241,244 Country / AreaMyanmar RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range1,232 – 2,363 Start1948 (76 years)
	11	Nigeria vs Islamic State	Nigeria	Africa	Internationalized	War	1,163	1,051 – 1,316	2015 (9 years)
IntensityWar Deaths 20241,163 Country / AreaNigeria RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range1,051 – 1,316 Start2015 (9 years)
	12	DR Congo vs AFC Rebels	DR Congo	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	904	732 – 2,555	1964 (60 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024904 Country / AreaDR Congo RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range732 – 2,555 Start1964 (60 years)
	13	Yemen — Civil War	Yemen	Middle East	Internationalized	Minor conflict	779	397 – 805	1948 (76 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024779 Country / AreaYemen RegionMiddle East TypeInternationalized Death range397 – 805 Start1948 (76 years)
	14	Mali vs JNIM	Mali	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	760	753 – 936	2009 (15 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024760 Country / AreaMali RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range753 – 936 Start2009 (15 years)
	15	Ethiopia vs OLA	Ethiopia	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	685	667 – 4,776	1974 (50 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024685 Country / AreaEthiopia RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range667 – 4,776 Start1974 (50 years)
	16	Syria vs Islamic State	Syria	Middle East	Internationalized	Minor conflict	629	588 – 641	2013 (11 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024629 Country / AreaSyria RegionMiddle East TypeInternationalized Death range588 – 641 Start2013 (11 years)
	17	Iran vs Israel	Iran / Israel	Middle East	Interstate	Minor conflict	549	548 – 549	2017 (7 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024549 Country / AreaIran / Israel RegionMiddle East TypeInterstate Death range548 – 549 Start2017 (7 years)
	18	Myanmar vs ULA	Myanmar	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	515	513 – 941	1948 (76 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024515 Country / AreaMyanmar RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range513 – 941 Start1948 (76 years)
	19	Niger vs Islamic State	Niger	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	485	397 – 831	2015 (9 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024485 Country / AreaNiger RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range397 – 831 Start2015 (9 years)
	20	Niger vs JNIM	Niger	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	440	405 – 508	1991 (33 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024440 Country / AreaNiger RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range405 – 508 Start1991 (33 years)
	21	India — Maoists (CPI)	India	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	325	319 – 360	1948 (76 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024325 Country / AreaIndia RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range319 – 360 Start1948 (76 years)
	22	Pakistan — Balochistan Insurgency	Pakistan	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	300	236 – 675	1973 (51 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024300 Country / AreaPakistan RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range236 – 675 Start1973 (51 years)
	23	Myanmar vs KIO	Myanmar	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	283	252 – 522	1949 (75 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024283 Country / AreaMyanmar RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range252 – 522 Start1949 (75 years)
	24	Colombia vs ELN / FARC	Colombia	Americas	Intrastate	Minor conflict	225	219 – 229	1964 (60 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024225 Country / AreaColombia RegionAmericas TypeIntrastate Death range219 – 229 Start1964 (60 years)
	25	Nigeria vs Boko Haram (JAS)	Nigeria	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	222	179 – 265	1966 (58 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024222 Country / AreaNigeria RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range179 – 265 Start1966 (58 years)
	26	Iraq vs Islamic State	Iraq	Middle East	Internationalized	Minor conflict	217	215 – 230	1958 (66 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024217 Country / AreaIraq RegionMiddle East TypeInternationalized Death range215 – 230 Start1958 (66 years)
	27	Turkey vs PKK (Kurds)	Turkey	Middle East	Intrastate	Minor conflict	209	205 – 367	1983 (41 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024209 Country / AreaTurkey RegionMiddle East TypeIntrastate Death range205 – 367 Start1983 (41 years)
	28	Nigeria vs IPOB (Biafra)	Nigeria	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	197	133 – 232	1967 (57 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024197 Country / AreaNigeria RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range133 – 232 Start1967 (57 years)
	29	Haiti vs Gangs (Viv Ansanm)	Haiti	Americas	Internationalized	Minor conflict	193	174 – 207	1989 (35 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024193 Country / AreaHaiti RegionAmericas TypeInternationalized Death range174 – 207 Start1989 (35 years)
	30	Central African Rep. vs CPC	Central African Rep.	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	177	159 – 448	2001 (23 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024177 Country / AreaCentral African Rep. RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range159 – 448 Start2001 (23 years)
	31	Cameroon vs Ambazonian Insurgents	Cameroon	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	168	161 – 174	2017 (7 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024168 Country / AreaCameroon RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range161 – 174 Start2017 (7 years)
	32	Myanmar vs KNU	Myanmar	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	165	165 – 459	1948 (76 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024165 Country / AreaMyanmar RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range165 – 459 Start1948 (76 years)
	33	Mozambique vs Islamic State	Mozambique	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	151	108 – 321	2019 (5 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024151 Country / AreaMozambique RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range108 – 321 Start2019 (5 years)
	34	DR Congo vs Islamic State	DR Congo	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	150	148 – 251	2017 (7 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024150 Country / AreaDR Congo RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range148 – 251 Start2017 (7 years)
	35	Philippines vs CPP	Philippines	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	133	125 – 133	1946 (78 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024133 Country / AreaPhilippines RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range125 – 133 Start1946 (78 years)
	36	Mali vs Islamic State	Mali	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	128	124 – 187	2017 (7 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024128 Country / AreaMali RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range124 – 187 Start2017 (7 years)
	37	Mali vs FLA	Mali	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	123	110 – 197	2023 (1 year)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024123 Country / AreaMali RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range110 – 197 Start2023 (1 year)
	38	US / UK vs Houthis (Yemen)	Yemen / US / United Kingdom	Europe	Interstate	Minor conflict	117	72 – 184	2023 (1 year)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024117 Country / AreaYemen / US / United Kingdom RegionEurope TypeInterstate Death range72 – 184 Start2023 (1 year)
	39	Iran vs Jaish al-Adl	Iran	Middle East	Intrastate	Minor conflict	113	113 – 113	1972 (52 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024113 Country / AreaIran RegionMiddle East TypeIntrastate Death range113 – 113 Start1972 (52 years)
	40	India — Kashmir Insurgency	India / Kashmir	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	112	111 – 114	1984 (40 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024112 Country / AreaIndia / Kashmir RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range111 – 114 Start1984 (40 years)
	41	Afghanistan vs Islamic State	Afghanistan	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	105	76 – 145	2015 (9 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 2024105 Country / AreaAfghanistan RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range76 – 145 Start2015 (9 years)
	42	Myanmar vs MNDAA	Myanmar	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	99	99 – 99	2009 (15 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202499 Country / AreaMyanmar RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range99 – 99 Start2009 (15 years)
	43	Syria vs SDF (Kurds)	Syria	Middle East	Intrastate	Minor conflict	78	78 – 78	2015 (9 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202478 Country / AreaSyria RegionMiddle East TypeIntrastate Death range78 – 78 Start2015 (9 years)
	44	Benin vs JNIM	Benin	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	77	73 – 83	2020 (4 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202477 Country / AreaBenin RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range73 – 83 Start2020 (4 years)
	45	Somalia — Jubaland Conflict	Somalia	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	75	10 – 75	2024 (0 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202475 Country / AreaSomalia RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range10 – 75 Start2024 (0 years)
	46	Burkina Faso vs Islamic State	Burkina Faso	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	63	53 – 67	2017 (7 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202463 Country / AreaBurkina Faso RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range53 – 67 Start2017 (7 years)
	47	Cameroon vs Boko Haram	Cameroon	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	63	55 – 64	1960 (64 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202463 Country / AreaCameroon RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range55 – 64 Start1960 (64 years)
	48	Afghanistan vs Pakistan	Afghanistan / Pakistan	Asia	Interstate	Minor conflict	61	51 – 105	2005 (19 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202461 Country / AreaAfghanistan / Pakistan RegionAsia TypeInterstate Death range51 – 105 Start2005 (19 years)
	49	Burundi vs RED-TABARA	Burundi	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	60	57 – 108	1965 (59 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202460 Country / AreaBurundi RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range57 – 108 Start1965 (59 years)
	50	Indonesia vs OPM (Papua)	Indonesia / Papua	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	57	39 – 63	1965 (59 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202457 Country / AreaIndonesia / Papua RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range39 – 63 Start1965 (59 years)
	51	Russia vs Islamic State	Russia	Europe	Intrastate	Minor conflict	53	47 – 54	2015 (9 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202453 Country / AreaRussia RegionEurope TypeIntrastate Death range47 – 54 Start2015 (9 years)
	52	Kenya vs Al-Shabaab	Kenya	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	52	49 – 53	2015 (9 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202452 Country / AreaKenya RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range49 – 53 Start2015 (9 years)
	53	Togo vs JNIM	Togo	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	46	46 – 53	1986 (38 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202446 Country / AreaTogo RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range46 – 53 Start1986 (38 years)
	54	Rwanda vs FDLR	Rwanda	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	44	37 – 44	1990 (34 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202444 Country / AreaRwanda RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range37 – 44 Start1990 (34 years)
	55	Philippines vs Islamic State	Philippines	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	43	40 – 43	2016 (8 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202443 Country / AreaPhilippines RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range40 – 43 Start2016 (8 years)
	56	Thailand — Patani Insurgency	Thailand	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	35	29 – 35	1965 (59 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202435 Country / AreaThailand RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range29 – 35 Start1965 (59 years)
	57	Somalia vs Islamic State	Somalia	Africa	Internationalized	Minor conflict	30	30 – 34	2018 (6 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202430 Country / AreaSomalia RegionAfrica TypeInternationalized Death range30 – 34 Start2018 (6 years)
	58	Myanmar vs KNPP	Myanmar	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	28	28 – 82	1957 (67 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202428 Country / AreaMyanmar RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range28 – 82 Start1957 (67 years)
	59	Afghanistan vs NRF	Afghanistan	Asia	Intrastate	Minor conflict	28	18 – 95	1975 (49 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202428 Country / AreaAfghanistan RegionAsia TypeIntrastate Death range18 – 95 Start1975 (49 years)
	60	Russia — LSR Internal Conflict	Russia	Europe	Intrastate	Minor conflict	28	24 – 35	1991 (33 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202428 Country / AreaRussia RegionEurope TypeIntrastate Death range24 – 35 Start1991 (33 years)
	61	Angola vs FLEC	Angola	Africa	Intrastate	Minor conflict	25	10 – 109	1989 (35 years)
IntensityMinor conflict Deaths 202425 Country / AreaAngola RegionAfrica TypeIntrastate Death range10 – 109 Start1989 (35 years)

☢️ Doomsday Clock

The world's best-known indicator of the risk of nuclear catastrophe · Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

thebulletin.org

Updated: January 2026

Current reading

85 sec.

the closest ever

Previous year (2025)

89 sec.

moved 4 seconds closer

Farthest point

17 min.

1991 — end of the Cold War

Historical trend (seconds to midnight)

1991

17min

1995

14min

1998

9min

2002

7min

2007

5min

2012

5min

2015

3min

2018

2min

2020

1min

2023

1min

2025

1min

2026

1min

☢️Probability of Nuclear Conflict

🌡 Global Level: HIGH

Russia – Ukraine

46%Critical

Israel – Lebanon/Iran

40%Critical

US – Iran

35%High

China – US (Taiwan)

41%High

North Korea

33%High

Nuclear weapons by country

Estimated total nuclear warheads worldwide12,121

Nuclear-armed states

12,121 warheads in total

🇷🇺

Russia

5,580

Active

🇺🇸

5,044

Active

🇨🇳

China

500

Expanding

🇫🇷

France

290

Active

🇬🇧

United Kingdom

225

Active

🇵🇰

Pakistan

170

Active

🇮🇳

India

172

Active

🇮🇱

Israel

Undeclared

🇰🇵

North Korea

Active