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Spaghetti Scenarios · Global risk

Global systemic cyberattack

A coordinated cyberattack simultaneously paralyzes the systems daily life depends on: electricity, banks, communications, transportation. Its effect resembles that of a solar storm, but its origin is human and deliberate, and it is fought differently: with cyber defense, networks separated from each other and cooperation between countries.

A single faulty update crashed 8.5 million computers in one day. The networks that sustain water, energy and communications already have intruders lying in wait.

Attacks on critical infrastructure

62%

of the AI-driven attacks in the 2026 study targeted critical infrastructure, mainly finance and energy. State-backed groups kept hidden access to water, energy and transportation networks for at least five years.

▼ Ransomware complaints against U.S. critical infrastructure: 870 in 2022, 1,193 in 2023 and +9% in 2024

Service recovery time

247 days

is how long it takes a company, on average, to identify and contain a breach, including restoring services (2026 report). Full recovery usually takes more than 100 days.

▼ Rose for the first time after five years of decline (241 days in 2025)

Dependence on single providers

8.5 million

Windows computers crashed on July 19, 2024 because of a single faulty update from a security vendor. Three companies hold 63% of the world's cloud.

International cybersecurity agreements

3 of 40

ratifications needed for the first UN convention against cybercrime, adopted in December 2024, to enter into force. It has 95 signatures, including the European Union.

▲ From 72 signatures in Hanoi (October 2025) to 95

Blows that showed the domino effect

Attacks and failures that spread beyond their target, and the international response.

  1. 2017A destructive program launched against Ukraine spreads and causes billions of dollars in damage in Europe, Asia and the Americas.
  2. 2021A ransomware attack forces the shutdown of a key U.S. fuel pipeline: lines at gas stations on the East Coast.
  3. Feb 2024Official warning: a state-backed group has been inside communications, energy, transportation and water networks for at least five years, ready to sabotage them in a crisis.
  4. Jul 2024A faulty update from a security vendor crashes 8.5 million computers. It was available for only 78 minutes.
  5. Dec 2024The UN General Assembly adopts the first global convention against cybercrime.
  6. Aug 2025Agencies from 13 countries warn of global espionage, active since at least 2021, inside major telecommunications networks.
  7. Oct 202571 countries and the European Union sign the convention in Hanoi.
  8. Jul 2026AI agents under evaluation escape their test environment and break into an outside company's servers on their own.
  9. Today · October 2026
  10. Dec 2026The deadline to sign the convention closes (December 31). It will enter into force 90 days after the 40th ratification.planned

How long it takes a company to stop a breach

Average days to identify and contain a data breach, including restoring services, by report year. It fell for several years and rose again in 2026.

01002003002023202420252026247
  • Days to identify and contain247days in 2026

Each report studies breaches from the previous 12 months (March to February).

Ransomware payments

Millions of dollars paid each year to groups that encrypt their victims' data and demand a ransom (only tracked cryptocurrency payments).

04008001,200202020212022202320242025820
  • Ransom payments820US$ millions in 2025

Payments fell in 2025, but claimed attacks rose 50%. The 2025 figure may grow as more payments are identified.

Who holds up the world's cloud

Share of the global cloud infrastructure market (second quarter of 2026). Three companies hold almost two thirds.

  • Amazon28%
  • Microsoft20%
  • Google15%
  • Other providers37%

Other = 100 − 63.

The global convention against cybercrime

It needs 40 ratifications to enter into force. The white line marks that goal.

Ratifications3 of 40
Signatures95
Includes the European Union. The UN has 193 member countries.

Scenario profile

ImpactModerate (3)
NegligibleMinorModerateMajorCatastrophic
ProbabilityUncertain
RemoteUnlikelyPossibleVery likelyAlmost certainUncertain: there is not enough basis to rate it
Confidence in the evidenceMedium for the mechanism; low for the probability
LowMediumHigh
WhenYears
Where it leadsCollapse
ReversibilityReversible

Global systemic cyberattack

Impact
Moderate (3)
Probability
Uncertain
Timeframe
Years
Score
N/A
Confidence
Medium for the mechanism; low for the probability
Reversibility
Reversible
Classification
Technological

Signals to watch

  • Attacks on critical infrastructure
  • Service recovery time
  • Dependence on single providers
  • International cybersecurity agreements

Possible human action

  • Cyber defense
  • Network segmentation
  • Redundancy
  • International cooperation