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Spaghetti Scenarios · Global risk

Extreme solar storm

A coronal mass ejection aimed at Earth can damage transformers and knock out entire power grids. It is not a direct threat to life, but it is a threat to the infrastructure everything else depends on. The line shows how the probability of at least one such event grows, year after year.

~12%probability per decade
~62%probability between 2025 and 2100

Cumulative probability of an extreme storm

UnlikelyPossibleVery likelyAlmost certain0%20%50%80%100%20252040206020802100today27%
Year: 2050

Extreme solar storm

Impact
Moderate (3)
Probability
Very likely (4)
Basis
A Riley 2012
Within the horizon
~12% per decade → ~62% in 2025–2100
Timeframe
Could happen at any time
Score
12
Confidence
Medium
Reversibility
Reversible

Signals to watch

  • Solar activity and cycle
  • Coronal mass ejection alerts
  • Grid hardening
  • Transformer reserves

Possible human action

  • Transformer shielding
  • Preventive shutdown protocols
  • Strategic reserves