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Spaghetti Scenarios · Global risk

Civilizational stagnation

Not every negative scenario is a collapse. Humanity can get stuck at a standstill: no destruction, but no progress either. Populism, disinformation, the abuse of tech entertainment, the depletion of resources and the lack of cooperation can keep the species busy with internal conflicts while its opportunities close. Losing potential is also a way of losing.

There is no collapse, but there is backsliding: the democracy experienced by the average citizen has returned to 1978 levels.

Indices of democratic quality and press freedom

74%

of the world's population lives in autocracies (2025). In 52.2% of countries, journalism is in a difficult or very serious situation (2026).

▼ The average citizen's democracy is back to 1978 levels

Public investment in science and education

2.6%

of world output goes to research and development (2023, public and private spending), the highest in the series. On public education, the typical country spends 3.6% (2023), less than the 4.2% of 2015.

Social trust

7 out of 10

people hesitate or refuse to trust someone with different values, backgrounds or sources of information (survey in 28 countries). Only 32% believe the next generation will be better off.

▼ The trust gap between rich and poor went from 6 to 15 points (2012–2026)

High-tech industrial capacity

24.7%

of the world's manufactured exports are high-tech (2024). But the most advanced chips were made in only two places: 69% in Taiwan and 31% in South Korea (2022).

▲ In 2007 it was 19.9%

Pressure on resources

1.73 Earths

is what humanity uses today: it consumes nature 73% faster than it regenerates. In 2026, the year's resources ran out on July 30.

▼ It is the largest overshoot on record; in 1972 they lasted the whole year

How much democracy the average citizen experiences

Liberal democracy index, from 0 (none) to 1 (full). The average citizen line gives more weight to the most populous countries. Move the slider to see each year.

00.10.20.30.40.51975198519952005201520250.270.37
  • Average citizen0.27in 2025
  • Average country0.37in 2025

The average citizen fell from 0.39 (2003) to 0.27 (2025): a 30% drop.

What kind of government the world's population lives under (2025)

Almost 3 out of 4 people live in autocracies. Only 7 out of 100 live in a liberal democracy, the lowest figure in more than 50 years.

  • Closed autocracy28%
  • Electoral autocracy46%
  • Electoral democracy19%
  • Liberal democracy7%

Information and trust

52.2%of countries: press in a difficult or very serious situation (2026). In 2002 it was 13.7%
<1%of the world's population lives where the press is in a good situation. In 2002 it was 20%
7 out of 10hesitate to trust people who think differently
32%believe the next generation will be better off

How much the world invests in knowledge

Spending on research and development, and public spending on education, as a percentage of output. Move the slider to see each year.

0%1%2%3%4%5%19962005201520233.57%2.60%
  • Public education (typical country)3.57%in 2023
  • Research and development (world)2.60%in 2023

Education: value for the typical country (median); fewer countries have reported in recent years. Research: public and private spending.

How far into the year nature lasts

The date on which humanity has already used everything nature renews in that year. After that date, it lives on credit. Move the slider to see each year.

Jul 1Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1197219851995200520152026December 31: the whole yearJul 30
  • Overshoot DayJul 30in 2026

Past dates are recalculated each year with the newest data.

Scenario profile

ImpactModerate (3)
NegligibleMinorModerateMajorCatastrophic
ProbabilityUncertain
RemoteUnlikelyPossibleVery likelyAlmost certainUncertain: there is not enough basis to rate it
Confidence in the evidenceLow
LowMediumHigh
WhenDecades–centuries
Where it leadsStagnates
ReversibilityPartially reversible or persistent

Civilizational stagnation

Impact
Moderate (3)
Probability
Uncertain
Timeframe
Decades–centuries
Score
N/A
Confidence
Low
Reversibility
Partially reversible or persistent
Classification
Civilizational

Signals to watch

  • Indices of democratic quality and press freedom
  • Public investment in science and education
  • Social trust
  • High-tech industrial capacity
  • Pressure on resources

Possible human action

  • Semiversal education
  • Quality of information
  • International cooperation
  • Civic participation