Doomsday Clock
85 s
to midnight in January 2026: the closest point to catastrophe since the clock was created (1947).
▼ 4 seconds closer than in 2025; in 1991 it was at 17 minutes
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Spaghetti Scenarios · Global risk
Large-scale nuclear war
An exchange of nuclear weapons between powers. The greatest damage would not come from the explosions, but from what follows: smoke from the fires would cover the sky for years —nuclear winter— and harvests would fail worldwide, with famines that could cost billions of lives.
There are almost six times fewer nuclear warheads than in 1986, but today there is no signed limit left between the two largest nuclear powers.
Deployed and high-alert warheads
4,012
warheads mounted on missiles and aircraft in January 2026. Between 2,100 and 2,200 are on high alert, almost all of them Russian and American.
▼ About 100 more deployed than in January 2025
Status of arms control treaties
None
Since February 5, 2026 there has been no binding limit on the strategic arsenals of the United States and Russia, for the first time in more than half a century.
▼ The last treaty of its kind expired with no replacement
Doctrinal escalations
2024
Russia updated its doctrine and expanded the cases in which it could use nuclear weapons. In 2025 it showed in Belarus a new missile that can carry nuclear warheads.
▼ The United States may be considering a return to explosive nuclear testing
Conflicts between nuclear powers
May 2025
India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed, fought their most serious armed conflict in decades, with strikes on bases with a nuclear mission. Both avoided escalation.
▼ The clash leaves a serious risk of rapid and unexpected escalation
The Doomsday Clock, 1947–2026
Seconds left until midnight, the symbolic hour of catastrophe. The lower the line, the closer to danger. Move the slider to see each year.
- Distance to midnight85seconds in 2026
Each year shows the most recent setting. 17 minutes = 1,020 seconds (1991, end of the Cold War). Since 2007 the clock also takes climate change into account.
The world's 12,187 warheads, in January 2026
A third are mounted on missiles and aircraft. Between 2,100 and 2,200 of those warheads are on high alert.
- Deployed on missiles and aircraft4,012
- Stored, usable after preparation5,733
- Retired, awaiting dismantlement2,442
Deployed + stored = 9,745 warheads available for military use, about 130 more than in January 2025.
Treaties falling and tensions rising
In seven years, almost all the agreements that limited or monitored the nuclear weapons of the great powers were lost.
- 2019The United States withdraws from the 1987 treaty that banned intermediate-range ground-launched missiles, accusing Russia of violating it.
- 2020–2021The United States (2020) and then Russia (2021) leave the Open Skies treaty, which allowed mutual observation flights.
- 2021The UN treaty banning nuclear weapons enters into force (50 countries had ratified it).
- 2023Russia withdraws its ratification of the treaty banning all nuclear tests.
- 2024Russia updates its doctrine and expands the cases in which it could use nuclear weapons.
- 2025May: armed conflict between India and Pakistan. June: Israel and the United States strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
- 2026January: the Doomsday Clock reaches 85 seconds. February 5: the last treaty limiting the arsenals of the United States and Russia expires with no replacement.
Nuclear warheads in the world, 1945–2026
The global arsenal peaked in 1986, with about 70,000 warheads, and has since fallen by more than 80%. In recent years the decline has almost stopped.
- World total12,187warheads in 2026
The total includes retired warheads awaiting dismantlement.
Scenario profile
ImpactCatastrophic (5)
NegligibleMinorModerateMajorCatastrophic
ProbabilityUncertain
RemoteUnlikelyPossibleVery likelyAlmost certainUncertain: there is not enough basis to rate it
Confidence in the evidenceLow for the probability; high for the impact
LowMediumHigh
WhenCould happen at any moment
Where it leadsCollapse / Existential risk
ReversibilityIrreversible on a human scale
Large-scale nuclear war
- Impact
- Catastrophic (5)
- Probability
- Uncertain
- Timeframe
- Could happen at any moment
- Score
- N/A
- Confidence
- Low for the probability; high for the impact
- Reversibility
- Irreversible on a human scale
- Classification
- Nuclear
Signals to watch
- Doomsday Clock
- Deployed and high-alert warheads
- Status of arms control treaties
- Doctrinal escalations
- Conflicts between nuclear powers
Possible human action
- Diplomacy
- Disarmament treaties
- Reduction of arsenals and of alert status