Spaghetti Scenarios · Global risk
Countries stop cooperating: they close themselves into blocs, abandon treaties and weaken international organizations. It does not destroy civilization by itself, but it worsens every other risk: without cooperation, the climate, pandemics and artificial intelligence cannot be addressed.
In 2025 there were more state-based armed conflicts than in any year since 1946, while countries abandon international agreements and organizations.
Treaties abandoned or not renewed
66
international organizations and agreements the United States ordered to leave in January 2026, including the UN climate change convention. Six countries gave notice in 2026 of their withdrawal from the International Criminal Court.
▼ In addition, the last nuclear treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired with no replacement (Feb 2026)
Participation in multilateral forums
−15%
in resources in the UN budget for 2026, with almost 19% fewer posts. As of October 1, 143 of 193 countries had paid their dues for the year in full; the United States had not.
▼ Almost 1.6 billion dollars in unpaid dues at the end of 2025
Barriers to trade and science
19.7%
of world imports are affected by tariffs and other barriers imposed since 2009 (2025). In science, the United States ordered its withdrawal from the international panel of experts on climate change.
▼ A year earlier it was 12.6%
Active conflicts
65
armed conflicts involving states in 2025: the highest since 1946. Eight were between countries, also a record.
▼ In 2010 there were 31; conflicts between countries doubled two years in a row
Each year, how many armed conflicts had a government on one or both sides. The bottom line counts only conflicts between countries. Move the slider to see each year.
Armed conflict = at least 25 battle deaths in a year. In 2025, 13 of these conflicts were wars (more than 1,000 deaths), the highest number since 1992.
Withdrawals from international organizations and treaties since 2025. Most are by the United States, but not only.
Share of world imports affected by tariffs and other restrictions accumulated since 2009. In a single year it jumped from one in eight to almost one in five.
At the end of February 2026, 72% of world trade was still under the common tariff rules. In April 2026 the effective average U.S. tariff was 11.8%, the highest since the early 1940s (not counting 2025).
The United States is not among the countries that paid their 2026 dues.