Spaghetti Scenarios · Global risk
A virus or bacterium of natural origin spreads across the planet, sickens a large share of the population and overwhelms hospitals, as happened with the 1918 flu or with COVID-19. Severe pandemics recur throughout history: the question is not whether there will be another, but when, and how prepared we will be.
The world learned to make vaccines in months, but it still has the same number of hospital beds and, right now, an open international health emergency.
Pathogens with sustained human-to-human transmission
8,116 cases
confirmed in the Ebola outbreak that began in May 2026, which does spread from person to person. Bird flu, by contrast, has infected 1,003 people since 2003 without spreading between humans.
▼ Went from 3,605 cases at the end of July to 8,116 at the end of September 2026
Observed case fatality
47.8%
of people with confirmed bird flu died (479 of 1,003, since 2003). In the 2026 Ebola outbreak, the case fatality rate was 44% at the end of July.
Hospital capacity
3.3
hospital beds per 1,000 people worldwide (2021). In 2000 there were 3.1.
■ Between 2.7 and 3.3 beds per 1,000 people since 2000
Vaccine development time
326 days
is how long it took for the first COVID-19 vaccines to start being given. For polio, 47 years passed after the virus was identified.
▲ From decades to less than a year; the agreed goal is 100 days
Every time an outbreak threatens to cross borders, the world's highest health alert is triggered. This is the list since the current system has existed, with the two decisions that changed it.
The 2026 Ebola outbreak and polio are the two emergencies still open in October 2026.
Hospital beds per 1,000 inhabitants. Move the slider to see each year: in two decades the figure barely moved.
2021 is the latest year with published global data.
No sustained transmission between people has been identified: the circulating viruses still do not spread easily from human to human. The virus reached U.S. dairy cows in March 2024.