← All scenarios

Spaghetti Scenarios · Beyond the 2025–2100 horizon

Death of the Sun

The Sun is not eternal. Long before it runs out of fuel, its growing brightness will leave Earth without oceans. It is not a risk for our century, but it is a reminder that the planet's habitability has a limit. Move the line to travel through time.

~1 billionyears: the oceans evaporate
~5 billionyears: red giant

The road to the red giant

The bottom axis is stretched: each step is worth far more than the one before
Habitable EarthEarth without oceans0%20%40%60%80%100%today21001K1M1B5BThe oceans evaporate~1 billion yearsRed giant~5 billion years2100still 0.0000015% of the way
Time from now: today

Death of the Sun

Impact
Catastrophic (5)
Probability
Almost certain (stellar evolution)
Timeframe
~1 billion years (habitability); ~5 billion (red giant)
Score
Outside the indicator's horizon
Confidence
High
Reversibility
Irreversible on a human timescale
Trajectory
Extinction (cosmic scale)

Sustainable multiplanetary expansion

The bright side of this scenario. If life on Earth has an expiration date, the very long-term continuity of civilization depends on expanding beyond the planet.