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Spaghetti Scenarios · Transcendence trajectory

Global resilience

A resilient civilization does not avoid every blow —droughts, floods, pandemics—, but it withstands them and recovers without losing what it built.

There are five times more climate disasters than in the 1970s, and almost three times fewer deaths. Warning in time saves lives.

Early warning

60%

of countries (119) have multi-hazard early warning systems (2025). In 2024 there were 108.

▲ More than double 10 years ago

Deaths from climate disasters

< 20,000

per year in the 2010s. In the 1970s there were more than 50,000 per year.

▲ Almost three times fewer, with five times more disasters

Disaster losses

~US$202 billion

per year in direct damage. Counting all effects, the real cost exceeds 2.3 trillion.

Pandemic preparedness

38.9 / 100

average country score on the health security index (2021).

■ Practically the same as in 2019

Early warnings for all

Percentage of countries with multi-hazard early warning systems. The UN goal is for the entire population to be covered by the end of 2027 (white line).

All countries · 202455% (108 countries)
All countries · 202560% (119 countries)
Small island states · 202543%

Where coverage is limited, disaster mortality is about six times higher.

More disasters, fewer deaths

Deaths per year from weather, climate and water-related disasters.

1970smore than 50,000 per year
≈ 170 per day
2010sfewer than 20,000 per year
≈ 40 per day

Over the same period, the number of recorded disasters grew fivefold.

What disasters cost

~US$202 billionper year in direct damage
> 2.3 trilliondollars per year counting all effects
US$224 billionin losses from natural catastrophes in 2025
~17,200deaths from natural catastrophes in 2025

Pandemic preparedness

Average score of 195 countries on the global health security index.

World average · 202138.9 out of 100

Practically the same as in 2019, despite the pandemic.

The path to resilience

  1. 2021WMO Atlas: 50 years of disasters with five times more events and almost three times fewer deaths.
  2. 2022The UN launches 'Early Warnings for All'.
  3. 2024108 countries with multi-hazard early warning.
  4. 2025119 countries (60%). The WHO Pandemic Agreement is adopted.
  5. Today · October 2026
  6. 2027Goal: the entire population of the planet protected by early warnings.planned

Global resilience

Probability
Uncertain
Timeframe
Not available
Confidence
Medium

Signals to watch

Proposed by the research: the profile does not define its signals yet.

  • Early warning
  • Deaths from climate disasters
  • Disaster losses
  • Pandemic preparedness

Possible human action

Not available yet for this scenario.