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Spaghetti Scenarios · Transcendence trajectory

International cooperation and governance

Humanity coordinates to solve what no country can solve alone: the ozone layer, the climate, pandemics. It is the trajectory that makes the others possible.

When the world agrees, it works: the ozone layer is healing. But today cooperation is weakening.

Sustainable development targets

36%

of the 139 UN targets with data are on track (2026). 15% are going backwards.

■ Almost the same as in 2025 (35%)

Treaties that work

198

parties ratified the Montreal Protocol, the UN's first universal treaty. The ozone layer is recovering.

▲ Back to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2066

Official development assistance

−23%

in 2025: 174.3 billion dollars, 0.26% of donor countries' income.

▼ The largest drop on record

New global agreements

2025

the first WHO Pandemic Agreement was adopted. It cannot be signed yet: its annex still has to be negotiated.

■ Negotiations extended until May 2027

Proof that cooperation works: the ozone layer

In 1987 the world agreed to stop using the gases that were opening the ozone hole. It is the only treaty signed by every country, and it is working.

  1. 1987The Montreal Protocol is signed.
  2. 2009Every country ratifies it (196 at the time): the first universal treaty in UN history.
  3. Today · October 2026
  4. 2026New scientific assessment of the ozone layer, expected by the end of the year.in progress
  5. ~2040The ozone layer returns to its 1980 levels over almost the entire planet.planned
  6. ~2045Recovery over the Arctic.planned
  7. ~2066Recovery over Antarctica, where the hole was.planned

Dates from the 2022 scientific assessment, if current policies are maintained.

UN targets for 2030: how they are doing

Of the 139 sustainable development targets with trend data, four years before the deadline.

  • On track or with moderate progress36%
  • Moving too slowly49%
  • Going backwards15%

Official development assistance

What donor countries give to other countries. In 2025 it had the largest drop on record.

2024US$215.1 billion · 0.34% of income
2025US$174.3 billion · 0.26% of income

Preliminary 2025 figure: −23.1% in real terms.

Recent global agreements

  1. 2015The Paris Agreement on climate is adopted (194 parties today).
  2. 2025The World Health Assembly adopts the first Pandemic Agreement.
  3. 2026The United States leaves the Paris Agreement (January 27).
  4. Today · October 2026
  5. 2027Deadline to finish the annex of the Pandemic Agreement; without it, the agreement cannot be signed.planned
  6. 2030Deadline of the Sustainable Development Goals.planned

International cooperation and governance

Probability
Uncertain
Timeframe
Not available
Confidence
Medium

Signals to watch

Proposed by the research: the profile does not define its signals yet.

  • Sustainable development targets
  • Treaties that work
  • Official development assistance
  • New global agreements

Possible human action

Not available yet for this scenario.