Spaghetti Scenarios · Global risk
A direct war between the great powers —the United States, China, Russia and their allies— fought with conventional weapons but always at risk of escalating. Even if no nuclear bomb were ever used, such a war would cut off world trade in energy, food and chips, and could cost millions of lives, as the two world wars of the 20th century did.
World military spending rose for the eleventh year in a row, the war in Ukraine is now more than four years old, and China is rehearsing blockades around Taiwan.
World military spending
US$2,887 billion
spent by the world on its armed forces in 2025, 2.9% more than in 2024. It equals 2.5% of the world economy, the highest share since 2009.
▼ Eleventh consecutive yearly increase
Sources: SIPRI ↗ · Our World in Data ↗
Military pressure on Taiwan
3,764
entries of Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan's air defence zone in 2025, a record: 22.4% more than in 2024. In 2026 air activity fell: in May there were 40% fewer flights than a year earlier.
Sources: CSIS ↗ · Taiwan Security Monitor ↗
War of attrition in Europe
Over 4 years
of full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, with estimates of up to 2 million or more killed or wounded. Neither side appears close to victory.
■ No formal negotiations since February 2026
Sources: Congressional Research Service ↗ · SIPRI ↗
Countries in conflicts beyond their borders
103
countries took part in at least one external conflict in the past five years. World peace deteriorated for the twelfth year in a row.
▼ There were 59 in 2008
Source: IEP ↗
Alliance rearmament
5%
of GDP per year for defence and security: the target NATO countries set for 2035, with at least 3.5% for core defence. In 2025 the European allies and Canada spent 2.27% on average.
▼ In 2025 Europe's military spending grew 14%, the biggest jump since the Cold War
Billions of dollars per year, adjusted for inflation. After the end of the Cold War spending fell until 1998; since 2015 it has risen every year. Move the slider to see each year.
In 2024 dollars. In each year's dollars, 2025 spending was 2,887 billion. 1991, the year the Soviet Union dissolved, is missing.
Sources: Our World in Data ↗ · SIPRI ↗
Defence spending as a percentage of GDP in 2025 (estimated). The agreed target is 3.5% for core defence by 2035, plus up to 1.5% for security.
Figures estimated by the alliance itself using its own definition of defence spending; they may differ from other sources. No figure for Germany for 2025.
Russia devoted 7.5% of its economy. In 2025 the share of public spending going to the military was the highest ever recorded in both countries.
Sources: Congressional Research Service ↗ · SIPRI ↗
Wars, manoeuvres and rearmament commitments since 2022.
Sources: Congressional Research Service ↗ · CSIS ↗ · OTAN ↗ · IEP ↗ · SIPRI ↗
Trajectory, timeframe, confidence, reversibility and human action: proposed by the research, because the catalogue does not define them yet. Impact and probability are the catalogue's.
Proposed by the research: the profile does not define its signals yet.