Where we stand on the Kardashev scale
0.728
with the energy the world used in 2018. At the estimated pace, Type 1 would not be reached until 2371.
Source: arXiv:2204.07070 ↗
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Spaghetti Scenarios · Stagnation trajectory
Resource depletion
The energy trap: civilization gets stuck halfway up the Kardashev scale, between 0.7 and 0.8, because it fails to deploy nuclear energy or fusion on a massive scale while consuming ever more resources.
Every year humanity uses more energy and more materials, and it still gets almost the same share from fossil fuels as 35 years ago.
Share of energy from fossil fuels
86%
of all the energy the world used in 2025 came from coal, oil and gas. In 1990 it was 90%.
■ Only 4 points lower in 35 years
Sources: Energy Institute ↗ · Our World in Data ↗
Materials extracted every year
106.6bn t
in 2024 (estimate), more than three times as much as in 1970. Per person, 13.2 tonnes a year.
▼ Could grow almost 60% by 2060 if the trend continues
Source: UNEP ↗
Nuclear electricity
8.8%
of the world's electricity in 2025. In 1996 it reached 17.4%.
▼ Half its peak, even though it generates more than ever
Sources: Energy Institute ↗ · Our World in Data ↗ · World Nuclear Association ↗
The trap in two lines
Top: the share of all the world's energy that comes from fossil fuels; bottom: the share of electricity that comes from nuclear reactors. Move the slider to see each year.
- Total energy from fossil fuels86.2%in 2025
- Electricity from nuclear8.8%in 2025
Nuclear peaked in 1996 (17.4%) and has been losing ground since, although in 2025 it produced more electricity than ever.
Sources: Our World in Data 1 ↗ · Our World in Data 2 ↗ · World Nuclear Association ↗
Getting energy takes ever more energy
≈30 to 1is what fossil fuels return for each unit of energy invested, measured at extraction.
≈6 to 1measured where the energy is used, after refining, transporting and converting it. And falling.
15.5%of oil's energy is already spent on producing it; it could reach half by 2050.
Sources: Nature Energy 4 ↗ · Applied Energy 304 ↗
Nuclear: what exists and what is promised
417reactors operating in 31 countries (379.6 GW). Another 78 are under construction.
11new builds started in 2025, as in 2024; 3 reactors came online and 7 closed.
38 countriespledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 (25 in 2023).
Sources: IAEA ↗ · World Nuclear Association ↗
Resources under pressure
30 July2026: by that day humanity had used what nature regenerates in a whole year. We live as if there were 1.73 Earths.
25%copper shortfall expected in 2035 with the mining projects in the pipeline; lithium is also short.
72%of the refining of each critical mineral is concentrated, on average, in a single country (70% in 2023).
1.5%a year is how fast the world's energy efficiency improves (2023); the target called for 2.6%.
Sources: Global Footprint Network ↗ · IEA ↗ · ESMAP ↗ · United Nations Statistics Division ↗
Resource depletion
- Impact
- Stagnation
- Probability
- Very likely
- Timeframe
- 100 years
- Score
- N/A
- Confidence
- Medium for the mechanism; low for the outcome
- Reversibility
- Partly reversible: abundant clean energy is a way out, but consumed resources do not come back
- Classification
- Geopolitical
The values from the original scenario table are kept; what that table does not define is proposed by the research, because the scenario does not have its own profile yet.
Signals to watch
Proposed by the research: the profile does not define its signals yet.
- Where we stand on the Kardashev scale
- Share of energy from fossil fuels
- Materials extracted every year
- Nuclear electricity
Possible human action
- Deploy nuclear energy at scale
- Improve energy efficiency at the pace of the global target
- Diversify and recycle critical minerals
- Reduce material extraction